Impact of Climate Variation on Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) based on Climate Projections until 2100

Abstract

One of the challenges faced in cultivating potatoes is global warming, which has the potential to result in an increase in atmospheric temperatures, as well as changes in various climate variabilities that can affect the planting season, growth, and crop yields. This research aims to project an increase in atmospheric temperature until 2100 in two production center areas based on climate projection models in three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, as well as projecting potato crop productivity in these two locations based on climate projection results. This research was carried out by examining climate variations at two location points, namely Tosari District and Poncokusumo District, and was conducted in May-October 2023. The tools used in this research included Microsoft Excel 2013, CORDEX, ArcMap 10.8, and NASA POWER software. The materials used include historical data on daily rainfall, daily minimum temperature, and daily maximum temperature, as well as potato productivity data from Tosari District and Poncokusumo District. Data analysis carried out in this research consisted of: 1) validation test of the climate projection model used, 2) projection of average rainfall and temperature, 3) multiple linear regression analysis to project potato crop productivity. The research results show that in the RCP 2.6 scenario, there is no pattern of increase in average atmospheric temperature until 2100, while there is a pattern of temperature increase of 0.41-1.21°C and 1.26-2.23°C in the RCP 4.5 scenario and RCP 8.5. There is an increase in potato plant productivity in Tosari District and Poncokusumo District based on productivity projections until 2100. Meanwhile, there is a decrease in potato plant productivity in Poncokusumo District in the RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios. Based on the RCP 8.5 scenario, there is a pattern of higher productivity increase in Poncokusumo District compared to Tosari District.